f13: page 3 of 3 - steps 7 to10

Readings and online activities done by each student individually.

The pilot continued toward the destination and had to climb higher and higher to stay VFR in the clear air above cloud top. The pilot reached the line of thunderstorms that were too tall to fly over. The pilot flew toward a small gap between the thunderstorms (the so-called "sucker hole"), but the gap closed. The pilot flew into into clouds and could not see the horizon, therefore could not control the aircraft to fly level. Pilot also likely experienced strong turbulence inside the thunderstorms. The pilot lost control of the aircraft allowing the aircraft to start falling out of the sky, but the pilot recovered (regained control) - twice.

The pilot lost control a third time. The pilot radioed to ATC that he was in trouble, and that the aircraft was in a spin (uncontrolled corkscrew descent of the aircraft). The aircraft crashed into the Canadian side of Lake Erie. The pilot died due to blunt trauma (multiple injuries) and drowning.

Official determination: "The non-instrument-rated pilot continued flight into known adverse weather conditions and lost control of the aircraft."

Do's and Don'ts of Thunderstorm Flying
Transport Canada Aeronautical Info Manual (TC-AIM) -Airmanship (AIR): Read only section 2.7 on Flight Operation Near Thunderstorms.
Aircraft stall and spin videos:

Short simulation of entry & safe exit from a spin

Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=64hO3QAl6Ck
Actual spin of aircraft with safe exit (Note, the camera frame rate makes it look like the propellor is not spinning sometimes, but it actually is, and the engine is running fine.)

Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=er3bgOTsILw

Extra info for experts; not needed for this course.

FAA General Aviation Pilots Guide to Preflight Weather Planning
Weather to Fly (Transport Canada CD that can be ordered)
FAA-AIM Sections 7-1-26 thru 7-1-29
Detailed spin info for pilots

Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UJQsAxB7E4Q

Carl Valeri's escape from a line of thunderstorms near Lake Erie - a different case, but similar situation. From expertaviator.com
Tips from meteorologists	When the cold air behind the cold front moves over the warmer Lake Erie, the warm lake heats and adds moisture to the bottom of the atmosphere. This warm air wants to rise due to its buoyancy, and when it rises the water vapour in it can condense to make clouds. For this particular scenario, the whole troposphere had a sounding that was conducive to thunderstorm formation. Namely, there were no statically stable (inversion) layers aloft that would prevent the warm rising air from going all the way to the top of the troposphere (10 km altitude for this case). Thus, thunderstorms formed when the cold front moved over the warm lake.
Tips from flight safety experts	Part of the issue is psychological. Pilots have such a strong desire to get to their destination or to get home that they ignore the deteriorating weather situation, and instead "hope" that they can continue. This is nicknamed "get-home-itis". Another problem is that pilots believe too strongly in the forecast, and "wish" it were true in spite of the different conditions that they see out their windscreen. Again, psychological. For both of the above situations, pilots could have remained safe by believing the view out the windscreen and making an earlier decision to change their destination or route while they were still flying in good weather. Another issue (perhaps not for this particular scenario) can be the compounding of many small problems into a very difficult problem (e.g., cannot see the horizon, instrument failure, engine running rough, turbulence, pilot tired, passengers getting sick, etc.). Also, sometimes pilots rely too heavily on autopilots and GPS and do not know what to do when these instruments fail.

If you could start over for this particular case study (knowing the actual outcome from Step 7), what would you do differently as a pilot? For example, would you make a different decision? Would you want more or different data to help you make your decision (if so, which data), etc.

Enter your statements into the UBC Canvas system, for the module: Flying A: case f13 - Step 10.

These count towards your grade (for grade weights, see the Evaluation link from the course home page). The grade is based on the relevance of your statements for the scenario of this learning module, and on the indication that you learned from your mistakes (if any), not on the amount of statements you make. Please be brief/succinct.

Image credits. Radar data from the US National Weather Service, with image annotated by Carl Valeri.