What drives global atmospheric circulation changes over the past decades?
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Meeting ID: 843 4178 7012
Non-uniform warming is a key observed feature associated with the global warming pattern in the past decades and our models forced by historical anthropogenic forcing cannot well replicate this feature. It is still unclear whether this feature is a unique characteristic of global warming and models lack the skill to capture it or it is primarily generated by low-frequency natural climate variability. Understanding this problem has important scientific and social implications. A closer examination of the role of natural variability in the past decades helps us better understand the complex nature of climate change. The goal of this talk is thus to demonstrate how low-frequency tropical-extratropical teleconnections synchronize climate variability in the tropics and extratropics over the past decades. I will focus on an interpretation of the dynamical mechanism that links global atmospheric circulation to climate forcing originating in tropical oceans and explore the extent to which this tropical-driven global impact may serve as an important dynamical natural source to modulate the response of climate to anthropogenic forcing and thus as a potential candidate to improve seasonal to decadal predictions of extratropical climate. This attempt will place recent prominent circulation and climate changes in different regions into a larger global context to better understand the relative contributions of anthropogenic forcing and natural variability in recent climate changes.