Garry Clarke and Valentina Radic in Nature Geoscience

April 14, 2015

In a remarkable paper published on April 6, 2015 in Nature Geoscience (, Garry Clarke, Valentina Radic and colleagues show that mountain glaciers in western Canada could shrink by 70% relative to 2005 levels by the end of the century as a result of global warming. The team built a novel high-resolution model that includes ice dynamics and then ran it with a series of climate scenarios covering the twenty-first century. The model suggests that few glaciers in the Canadian Rocky Mountains will persist by 2100, although glaciers in the coastal range of northwest British Columbia could survive "in a diminished state". The team predicts that changes in runoff from the melting glaciers over the course of the century could affect aquatic ecosystems, agriculture, forests, water quality and tourism.