Strait of Georgia Spring Diatom Bloom Prediction

The current best estimate of the first spring diatom bloom in the Strait of Georgia is 2014-03-27. That estimate is based on a run of the SOG biophysical model for deep estuaries with the following parameters:

  • Run start date/time: 2013-09-19 00:00:00
  • Actual wind, meteorological, and river flow forcing data to 2014-04-29, and averaged data thereafter

Best estimate bounds on the bloom date are:

  • No earlier than 2014-03-27 based on using actual forcing data to 2014-04-29, and data from 1992/1993 thereafter. 1993 had the earliest spring diatom bloom hindcast since 1968 [1].
  • No later than 2014-03-27 based on using actual forcing data to 2014-04-29, and data from 1998/1999 thereafter. 1999 had the latest spring diatom bloom hindcast since 1968 [1].

[1] Allen, S. E. and M. A. Wolfe, Hindcast of the Timing of the Spring Phytoplankton Bloom in the Strait of Georgia, 1968-2010. Progress in Oceanography, vol 115, pp 6-13 (2013). http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.pocean.2013.05.026

Data Sources

The forcing data used to drive the SOG model is obatined from several sources:

Disclaimer

This site presents output from a research project. Results are not expected to be a robust prediction of the timing of the spring bloom. At this point, we believe such a prediction is not possible before mid-February using any model and this model is not yet tested.

Time Series

Profiles at 2014-04-29 12:00

Bloom Date Evolution

Wind Data Date Average Forcing Early Bloom Forcing Late Bloom Forcing
Predicted Bloom Date Diatom Biomass [uM N] Predicted Bloom Date Diatom Biomass [uM N] Predicted Bloom Date Diatom Biomass [uM N]
2014-01-30 2014-03-21 16.1232 2014-03-13 15.5636 2014-04-14 15.3171
2014-01-31 2014-03-21 16.0513 2014-03-13 15.5414 2014-04-14 15.3251
2014-02-01 2014-03-21 16.0243 2014-03-13 15.5286 2014-04-14 15.3444
2014-02-02 2014-03-21 16.0002 2014-03-13 15.5359 2014-04-14 15.3934
2014-02-03 2014-03-21 16.0352 2014-03-13 15.5452 2014-04-14 15.4454
2014-02-04 2014-03-22 16.1006 2014-03-13 15.6022 2014-04-14 15.4472
2014-02-05 2014-03-23 16.1350 2014-03-13 15.5208 2014-04-14 15.4174
2014-02-06 2014-03-23 16.1890 2014-03-14 14.8906 2014-04-14 15.4473
2014-02-07 2014-03-23 16.1958 2014-03-14 15.2548 2014-04-14 15.4651
2014-02-08 2014-03-23 16.1411 2014-03-14 15.5560 2014-04-14 15.4649
2014-02-09 2014-03-20 15.3799 2014-02-27 15.3673 2014-04-14 14.8695
2014-02-10 2014-03-20 15.4671 2014-02-28 14.9619 2014-04-14 14.8715
2014-02-11 2014-03-20 15.7589 2014-03-13 15.2716 2014-04-14 14.9481
2014-02-12 2014-03-20 15.7421 2014-03-13 15.2287 2014-04-14 14.8020
2014-02-13 2014-03-20 15.7055 2014-03-13 15.1455 2014-04-14 14.7677
2014-02-14 2014-03-20 15.6616 2014-03-13 14.7098 2014-04-14 14.8963
2014-02-15 2014-03-21 15.7302 2014-03-14 14.6147 2014-04-14 14.8817
2014-02-16 2014-03-26 15.7039 2014-03-14 15.5678 2014-04-14 14.9418
2014-02-17 2014-03-24 15.7564 2014-03-14 15.5908 2014-04-14 14.9948
2014-02-19 2014-03-26 15.8252 2014-03-17 16.3052 2014-04-14 15.0167
2014-02-20 2014-03-26 15.9633 2014-03-19 15.8581 2014-04-14 15.1823
2014-02-21 2014-03-27 15.4738 2014-03-19 15.8725 2014-04-14 15.1512
2014-02-22 2014-03-27 15.5213 2014-03-17 16.4130 2014-04-14 14.9172
2014-02-23 2014-03-27 15.5048 2014-03-17 16.4142 2014-04-14 15.0001
2014-02-24 2014-03-27 15.7716 2014-03-27 14.9860 2014-04-14 15.1669
2014-02-25 2014-03-27 15.6812 2014-03-26 15.0880 2014-04-14 15.2470
2014-02-26 2014-03-26 15.8830 2014-03-26 15.2310 2014-04-09 15.1304
2014-02-27 2014-03-24 15.8283 2014-03-26 15.0983 2014-04-14 15.0126
2014-02-28 2014-03-23 15.9092 2014-03-27 15.0420 2014-04-14 15.1433
2014-03-01 2014-03-27 15.5722 2014-03-27 15.7560 2014-04-14 15.1214
2014-03-02 2014-03-27 15.8926 2014-03-27 16.0139 2014-04-14 15.1797
2014-03-03 2014-03-27 15.9653 2014-03-27 16.2273 2014-04-14 14.2864
2014-03-04 2014-03-27 15.9633 2014-03-27 16.2767 2014-04-14 14.4595
2014-03-06 2014-03-27 16.1696 2014-03-27 15.6699 2014-04-14 14.7625
2014-03-07 2014-03-27 16.2203 2014-03-27 15.8981 2014-04-14 14.7587
2014-03-08 2014-03-27 16.2835 2014-03-27 15.9289 2014-04-14 14.5732
2014-03-09 2014-03-27 16.2057 2014-03-27 15.9835 2014-04-08 14.6072
2014-03-10 2014-03-28 16.5440 2014-03-27 16.0935 2014-04-14 15.0121
2014-03-11 2014-03-27 16.8315 2014-03-27 16.0938 2014-04-14 14.9780
2014-03-12 2014-03-26 16.9411 2014-03-27 16.1257 2014-04-14 14.7636
2014-03-13 2014-03-27 16.2343 2014-03-27 16.7073 2014-04-06 14.6727
2014-03-14 2014-03-24 16.7803 2014-03-27 16.7468 2014-04-06 14.6555
2014-03-15 2014-03-26 16.7983 2014-03-27 16.5040 2014-04-06 14.6975
2014-03-16 2014-03-31 16.3749 2014-03-28 16.8368 2014-04-06 15.0345
2014-03-17 2014-04-02 15.5432 2014-03-29 15.4870 2014-04-08 15.0186
2014-03-18 2014-04-02 15.7408 2014-03-29 15.4106 2014-04-14 14.8586
2014-03-19 2014-04-03 15.8385 2014-03-30 15.1542 2014-04-14 15.2486
2014-03-20 2014-04-03 15.7611 2014-03-30 15.3119 2014-04-14 15.1919
2014-03-21 2014-04-02 15.6911 2014-03-30 14.9906 2014-04-14 14.9901
2014-03-22 2014-04-01 15.5880 2014-03-30 15.3689 2014-04-14 15.1640
2014-03-23 2014-04-01 16.2636 2014-03-29 15.1866 2014-04-14 15.0977
2014-03-24 2014-03-31 16.6534 2014-03-28 15.4640 2014-04-14 15.0327
2014-03-25 2014-03-31 16.4012 2014-03-27 17.1258 2014-04-06 15.0056
2014-03-26 2014-03-31 16.3945 2014-03-27 16.3459 2014-04-06 14.6229
2014-03-27 2014-03-29 16.4821 2014-03-27 16.0472 2014-04-06 14.9349
2014-03-28 2014-03-29 16.4332 2014-03-28 16.3403 2014-04-06 14.3747
2014-03-29 2014-03-29 16.4181 2014-03-29 16.4142 2014-03-27 16.0472
2014-03-30 2014-03-29 16.4181 2014-03-29 16.4142 2014-03-27 16.0472
2014-03-31 2014-03-29 16.4181 2014-03-29 16.4142 2014-03-27 16.0472
2014-04-01 2014-03-29 16.4181 2014-03-29 16.4142 2014-03-27 16.0472
2014-04-02 2014-03-29 16.4181 2014-03-29 16.4142 2014-03-27 16.0472
2014-04-03 2014-03-29 16.4181 2014-03-29 16.4142 2014-03-27 16.0472
2014-04-04 2014-03-29 16.4181 2014-03-29 16.4142 2014-03-27 16.0472
2014-04-05 2014-03-29 16.4181 2014-03-29 16.4142 2014-03-27 16.0472
2014-04-06 2014-03-29 16.4181 2014-03-29 16.4142 2014-03-27 16.0472
2014-04-07 2014-03-29 16.4181 2014-03-29 16.4142 2014-03-27 16.0472
2014-04-08 2014-03-29 16.4181 2014-03-29 16.4142 2014-03-27 16.0472
2014-04-09 2014-03-29 16.4181 2014-03-29 16.4142 2014-03-27 16.0472
2014-04-10 2014-03-29 16.4181 2014-03-29 16.4142 2014-03-27 16.0472
2014-04-11 2014-03-29 16.4181 2014-03-29 16.4142 2014-03-27 16.0472
2014-04-12 2014-03-29 16.4181 2014-03-29 16.4142 2014-03-27 16.0472
2014-04-13 2014-03-29 16.4181 2014-03-29 16.4142 2014-03-27 16.0472
2014-04-14 2014-03-29 16.4181 2014-03-29 16.4142 2014-03-27 16.0472
2014-04-15 2014-03-27 16.0472 2014-03-27 16.0472 2014-03-27 16.0472
2014-04-16 2014-03-27 16.0472 2014-03-27 16.0472 2014-03-27 16.0472
2014-04-17 2014-03-27 16.0472 2014-03-27 16.0472 2014-03-27 16.0472
2014-04-18 2014-03-27 16.0472 2014-03-27 16.0472 2014-03-27 16.0472
2014-04-20 2014-03-27 16.0472 2014-03-27 16.0472 2014-03-27 16.0472
2014-04-21 2014-03-27 16.0472 2014-03-27 16.0472 2014-03-27 16.0472
2014-04-22 2014-03-27 16.0472 2014-03-27 16.0472 2014-03-27 16.0472
2014-04-23 2014-03-27 16.0472 2014-03-27 16.0472 2014-03-27 16.0472
2014-04-25 2014-03-27 16.0362 2014-03-27 16.0362 2014-03-27 16.0362
2014-04-26 2014-03-27 16.0362 2014-03-27 16.0362 2014-03-27 16.0362
2014-04-27 2014-03-27 16.0362 2014-03-27 16.0362 2014-03-27 16.0362
2014-04-28 2014-03-27 16.0362 2014-03-27 16.0362 2014-03-27 16.0362
2014-04-29 2014-03-27 16.0362 2014-03-27 16.0362 2014-03-27 16.0362