The current best estimate of the first spring diatom bloom in the Strait of Georgia is 2014-03-27. That estimate is based on a run of the SOG biophysical model for deep estuaries with the following parameters:
- Run start date/time: 2013-09-19 00:00:00
- Actual wind, meteorological, and river flow forcing data to 2014-04-29, and averaged data thereafter
Best estimate bounds on the bloom date are:
- No earlier than 2014-03-27 based on using actual forcing data to 2014-04-29, and data from 1992/1993 thereafter. 1993 had the earliest spring diatom bloom hindcast since 1968 [1].
- No later than 2014-03-27 based on using actual forcing data to 2014-04-29, and data from 1998/1999 thereafter. 1999 had the latest spring diatom bloom hindcast since 1968 [1].
[1] Allen, S. E. and M. A. Wolfe, Hindcast of the Timing of the Spring Phytoplankton Bloom in the Strait of Georgia, 1968-2010. Progress in Oceanography, vol 115, pp 6-13 (2013). http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.pocean.2013.05.026
Data Sources
The forcing data used to drive the SOG model is obatined from several sources:
- Hourly wind velocities at Sandheads Lightstation from the bulk data web service at climate.weatheroffice.gc.ca/climateData/
- Hourly air temperature, relative humidity, and weather description (from which cloud fraction is calculated) at Vancouver International Airport (YVR) from the bulk data web service at climate.weatheroffice.gc.ca/climateData/
- Average daily river discharge rates for the Fraser River, and the Englishman River (as a proxy for the fresh water sources other than the Fraser) from www.wateroffice.ec.gc.ca/
Disclaimer
This site presents output from a research project. Results are not expected to be a robust prediction of the timing of the spring bloom. At this point, we believe such a prediction is not possible before mid-February using any model and this model is not yet tested.
Time Series
Profiles at 2014-04-29 12:00
Bloom Date Evolution
Wind Data Date | Average Forcing | Early Bloom Forcing | Late Bloom Forcing | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Predicted Bloom Date | Diatom Biomass [uM N] | Predicted Bloom Date | Diatom Biomass [uM N] | Predicted Bloom Date | Diatom Biomass [uM N] | |
2014-01-30 | 2014-03-21 | 16.1232 | 2014-03-13 | 15.5636 | 2014-04-14 | 15.3171 |
2014-01-31 | 2014-03-21 | 16.0513 | 2014-03-13 | 15.5414 | 2014-04-14 | 15.3251 |
2014-02-01 | 2014-03-21 | 16.0243 | 2014-03-13 | 15.5286 | 2014-04-14 | 15.3444 |
2014-02-02 | 2014-03-21 | 16.0002 | 2014-03-13 | 15.5359 | 2014-04-14 | 15.3934 |
2014-02-03 | 2014-03-21 | 16.0352 | 2014-03-13 | 15.5452 | 2014-04-14 | 15.4454 |
2014-02-04 | 2014-03-22 | 16.1006 | 2014-03-13 | 15.6022 | 2014-04-14 | 15.4472 |
2014-02-05 | 2014-03-23 | 16.1350 | 2014-03-13 | 15.5208 | 2014-04-14 | 15.4174 |
2014-02-06 | 2014-03-23 | 16.1890 | 2014-03-14 | 14.8906 | 2014-04-14 | 15.4473 |
2014-02-07 | 2014-03-23 | 16.1958 | 2014-03-14 | 15.2548 | 2014-04-14 | 15.4651 |
2014-02-08 | 2014-03-23 | 16.1411 | 2014-03-14 | 15.5560 | 2014-04-14 | 15.4649 |
2014-02-09 | 2014-03-20 | 15.3799 | 2014-02-27 | 15.3673 | 2014-04-14 | 14.8695 |
2014-02-10 | 2014-03-20 | 15.4671 | 2014-02-28 | 14.9619 | 2014-04-14 | 14.8715 |
2014-02-11 | 2014-03-20 | 15.7589 | 2014-03-13 | 15.2716 | 2014-04-14 | 14.9481 |
2014-02-12 | 2014-03-20 | 15.7421 | 2014-03-13 | 15.2287 | 2014-04-14 | 14.8020 |
2014-02-13 | 2014-03-20 | 15.7055 | 2014-03-13 | 15.1455 | 2014-04-14 | 14.7677 |
2014-02-14 | 2014-03-20 | 15.6616 | 2014-03-13 | 14.7098 | 2014-04-14 | 14.8963 |
2014-02-15 | 2014-03-21 | 15.7302 | 2014-03-14 | 14.6147 | 2014-04-14 | 14.8817 |
2014-02-16 | 2014-03-26 | 15.7039 | 2014-03-14 | 15.5678 | 2014-04-14 | 14.9418 |
2014-02-17 | 2014-03-24 | 15.7564 | 2014-03-14 | 15.5908 | 2014-04-14 | 14.9948 |
2014-02-19 | 2014-03-26 | 15.8252 | 2014-03-17 | 16.3052 | 2014-04-14 | 15.0167 |
2014-02-20 | 2014-03-26 | 15.9633 | 2014-03-19 | 15.8581 | 2014-04-14 | 15.1823 |
2014-02-21 | 2014-03-27 | 15.4738 | 2014-03-19 | 15.8725 | 2014-04-14 | 15.1512 |
2014-02-22 | 2014-03-27 | 15.5213 | 2014-03-17 | 16.4130 | 2014-04-14 | 14.9172 |
2014-02-23 | 2014-03-27 | 15.5048 | 2014-03-17 | 16.4142 | 2014-04-14 | 15.0001 |
2014-02-24 | 2014-03-27 | 15.7716 | 2014-03-27 | 14.9860 | 2014-04-14 | 15.1669 |
2014-02-25 | 2014-03-27 | 15.6812 | 2014-03-26 | 15.0880 | 2014-04-14 | 15.2470 |
2014-02-26 | 2014-03-26 | 15.8830 | 2014-03-26 | 15.2310 | 2014-04-09 | 15.1304 |
2014-02-27 | 2014-03-24 | 15.8283 | 2014-03-26 | 15.0983 | 2014-04-14 | 15.0126 |
2014-02-28 | 2014-03-23 | 15.9092 | 2014-03-27 | 15.0420 | 2014-04-14 | 15.1433 |
2014-03-01 | 2014-03-27 | 15.5722 | 2014-03-27 | 15.7560 | 2014-04-14 | 15.1214 |
2014-03-02 | 2014-03-27 | 15.8926 | 2014-03-27 | 16.0139 | 2014-04-14 | 15.1797 |
2014-03-03 | 2014-03-27 | 15.9653 | 2014-03-27 | 16.2273 | 2014-04-14 | 14.2864 |
2014-03-04 | 2014-03-27 | 15.9633 | 2014-03-27 | 16.2767 | 2014-04-14 | 14.4595 |
2014-03-06 | 2014-03-27 | 16.1696 | 2014-03-27 | 15.6699 | 2014-04-14 | 14.7625 |
2014-03-07 | 2014-03-27 | 16.2203 | 2014-03-27 | 15.8981 | 2014-04-14 | 14.7587 |
2014-03-08 | 2014-03-27 | 16.2835 | 2014-03-27 | 15.9289 | 2014-04-14 | 14.5732 |
2014-03-09 | 2014-03-27 | 16.2057 | 2014-03-27 | 15.9835 | 2014-04-08 | 14.6072 |
2014-03-10 | 2014-03-28 | 16.5440 | 2014-03-27 | 16.0935 | 2014-04-14 | 15.0121 |
2014-03-11 | 2014-03-27 | 16.8315 | 2014-03-27 | 16.0938 | 2014-04-14 | 14.9780 |
2014-03-12 | 2014-03-26 | 16.9411 | 2014-03-27 | 16.1257 | 2014-04-14 | 14.7636 |
2014-03-13 | 2014-03-27 | 16.2343 | 2014-03-27 | 16.7073 | 2014-04-06 | 14.6727 |
2014-03-14 | 2014-03-24 | 16.7803 | 2014-03-27 | 16.7468 | 2014-04-06 | 14.6555 |
2014-03-15 | 2014-03-26 | 16.7983 | 2014-03-27 | 16.5040 | 2014-04-06 | 14.6975 |
2014-03-16 | 2014-03-31 | 16.3749 | 2014-03-28 | 16.8368 | 2014-04-06 | 15.0345 |
2014-03-17 | 2014-04-02 | 15.5432 | 2014-03-29 | 15.4870 | 2014-04-08 | 15.0186 |
2014-03-18 | 2014-04-02 | 15.7408 | 2014-03-29 | 15.4106 | 2014-04-14 | 14.8586 |
2014-03-19 | 2014-04-03 | 15.8385 | 2014-03-30 | 15.1542 | 2014-04-14 | 15.2486 |
2014-03-20 | 2014-04-03 | 15.7611 | 2014-03-30 | 15.3119 | 2014-04-14 | 15.1919 |
2014-03-21 | 2014-04-02 | 15.6911 | 2014-03-30 | 14.9906 | 2014-04-14 | 14.9901 |
2014-03-22 | 2014-04-01 | 15.5880 | 2014-03-30 | 15.3689 | 2014-04-14 | 15.1640 |
2014-03-23 | 2014-04-01 | 16.2636 | 2014-03-29 | 15.1866 | 2014-04-14 | 15.0977 |
2014-03-24 | 2014-03-31 | 16.6534 | 2014-03-28 | 15.4640 | 2014-04-14 | 15.0327 |
2014-03-25 | 2014-03-31 | 16.4012 | 2014-03-27 | 17.1258 | 2014-04-06 | 15.0056 |
2014-03-26 | 2014-03-31 | 16.3945 | 2014-03-27 | 16.3459 | 2014-04-06 | 14.6229 |
2014-03-27 | 2014-03-29 | 16.4821 | 2014-03-27 | 16.0472 | 2014-04-06 | 14.9349 |
2014-03-28 | 2014-03-29 | 16.4332 | 2014-03-28 | 16.3403 | 2014-04-06 | 14.3747 |
2014-03-29 | 2014-03-29 | 16.4181 | 2014-03-29 | 16.4142 | 2014-03-27 | 16.0472 |
2014-03-30 | 2014-03-29 | 16.4181 | 2014-03-29 | 16.4142 | 2014-03-27 | 16.0472 |
2014-03-31 | 2014-03-29 | 16.4181 | 2014-03-29 | 16.4142 | 2014-03-27 | 16.0472 |
2014-04-01 | 2014-03-29 | 16.4181 | 2014-03-29 | 16.4142 | 2014-03-27 | 16.0472 |
2014-04-02 | 2014-03-29 | 16.4181 | 2014-03-29 | 16.4142 | 2014-03-27 | 16.0472 |
2014-04-03 | 2014-03-29 | 16.4181 | 2014-03-29 | 16.4142 | 2014-03-27 | 16.0472 |
2014-04-04 | 2014-03-29 | 16.4181 | 2014-03-29 | 16.4142 | 2014-03-27 | 16.0472 |
2014-04-05 | 2014-03-29 | 16.4181 | 2014-03-29 | 16.4142 | 2014-03-27 | 16.0472 |
2014-04-06 | 2014-03-29 | 16.4181 | 2014-03-29 | 16.4142 | 2014-03-27 | 16.0472 |
2014-04-07 | 2014-03-29 | 16.4181 | 2014-03-29 | 16.4142 | 2014-03-27 | 16.0472 |
2014-04-08 | 2014-03-29 | 16.4181 | 2014-03-29 | 16.4142 | 2014-03-27 | 16.0472 |
2014-04-09 | 2014-03-29 | 16.4181 | 2014-03-29 | 16.4142 | 2014-03-27 | 16.0472 |
2014-04-10 | 2014-03-29 | 16.4181 | 2014-03-29 | 16.4142 | 2014-03-27 | 16.0472 |
2014-04-11 | 2014-03-29 | 16.4181 | 2014-03-29 | 16.4142 | 2014-03-27 | 16.0472 |
2014-04-12 | 2014-03-29 | 16.4181 | 2014-03-29 | 16.4142 | 2014-03-27 | 16.0472 |
2014-04-13 | 2014-03-29 | 16.4181 | 2014-03-29 | 16.4142 | 2014-03-27 | 16.0472 |
2014-04-14 | 2014-03-29 | 16.4181 | 2014-03-29 | 16.4142 | 2014-03-27 | 16.0472 |
2014-04-15 | 2014-03-27 | 16.0472 | 2014-03-27 | 16.0472 | 2014-03-27 | 16.0472 |
2014-04-16 | 2014-03-27 | 16.0472 | 2014-03-27 | 16.0472 | 2014-03-27 | 16.0472 |
2014-04-17 | 2014-03-27 | 16.0472 | 2014-03-27 | 16.0472 | 2014-03-27 | 16.0472 |
2014-04-18 | 2014-03-27 | 16.0472 | 2014-03-27 | 16.0472 | 2014-03-27 | 16.0472 |
2014-04-20 | 2014-03-27 | 16.0472 | 2014-03-27 | 16.0472 | 2014-03-27 | 16.0472 |
2014-04-21 | 2014-03-27 | 16.0472 | 2014-03-27 | 16.0472 | 2014-03-27 | 16.0472 |
2014-04-22 | 2014-03-27 | 16.0472 | 2014-03-27 | 16.0472 | 2014-03-27 | 16.0472 |
2014-04-23 | 2014-03-27 | 16.0472 | 2014-03-27 | 16.0472 | 2014-03-27 | 16.0472 |
2014-04-25 | 2014-03-27 | 16.0362 | 2014-03-27 | 16.0362 | 2014-03-27 | 16.0362 |
2014-04-26 | 2014-03-27 | 16.0362 | 2014-03-27 | 16.0362 | 2014-03-27 | 16.0362 |
2014-04-27 | 2014-03-27 | 16.0362 | 2014-03-27 | 16.0362 | 2014-03-27 | 16.0362 |
2014-04-28 | 2014-03-27 | 16.0362 | 2014-03-27 | 16.0362 | 2014-03-27 | 16.0362 |
2014-04-29 | 2014-03-27 | 16.0362 | 2014-03-27 | 16.0362 | 2014-03-27 | 16.0362 |