Strait of Georgia Spring Diatom Bloom Prediction

The current best estimate of the first spring diatom bloom in the Strait of Georgia is 2014-03-27. That estimate is based on a run of the SOG biophysical model for deep estuaries with the following parameters:

• Run start date/time: 2013-09-19 00:00:00
• Actual wind, meteorological, and river flow forcing data to 2014-04-29, and averaged data thereafter

Best estimate bounds on the bloom date are:

• No earlier than 2014-03-27 based on using actual forcing data to 2014-04-29, and data from 1992/1993 thereafter. 1993 had the earliest spring diatom bloom hindcast since 1968 [1].
• No later than 2014-03-27 based on using actual forcing data to 2014-04-29, and data from 1998/1999 thereafter. 1999 had the latest spring diatom bloom hindcast since 1968 [1].

[1] Allen, S. E. and M. A. Wolfe, Hindcast of the Timing of the Spring Phytoplankton Bloom in the Strait of Georgia, 1968-2010. Progress in Oceanography, vol 115, pp 6-13 (2013). http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.pocean.2013.05.026

Data Sources

The forcing data used to drive the SOG model is obatined from several sources:

• Hourly wind velocities at Sandheads Lightstation from the bulk data web service at climate.weatheroffice.gc.ca/climateData/
• Hourly air temperature, relative humidity, and weather description (from which cloud fraction is calculated) at Vancouver International Airport (YVR) from the bulk data web service at climate.weatheroffice.gc.ca/climateData/
• Average daily river discharge rates for the Fraser River, and the Englishman River (as a proxy for the fresh water sources other than the Fraser) from www.wateroffice.ec.gc.ca/

Disclaimer

This site presents output from a research project. Results are not expected to be a robust prediction of the timing of the spring bloom. At this point, we believe such a prediction is not possible before mid-February using any model and this model is not yet tested.

Time Series

Bloom Date Evolution