Chaos, Nonlinear-Dynamics, Ensemble Forecasts, Probabilistic Forecasts

Under construction (this web page, and most other web pages for this course).

Instructor: Roland Stull

Learning Goals:

• explain Lorenz's theory on how "sensitive dependence to initial conditions" in nonlinear systems such as the atmosphere can limit the range of predictability.
• describe different ways to create ensemble forecasts, and their pros and cons.
• be aware of some of the ensemble forecasts made around the world by different forecast centers.
• explain the value of the ensemble-average forecast as adeterministic forecast.
• explain the value of probabilistic forecasts
• describe measures of forecast uncertainty
• discuss how ensemble forecasts can be transformed into probabilistic forecasts
• explain the reasons and methods for calibrating a probabilistic forecast

Readings BEFORE class:

1. tbd

Homework AFTER class:

1. review Stull's and Nipen's presentation slides
   

A. Overview of Chaos and Ensemble Forecasting.

1. Stull's Chaos and Ensemble Forecasting lecture slides-2023  
   

B. Skim Ensemble forecast explanations from other forecast centers:

C. Overview of Probabilistic Forecasting

1. Thomas Nipen's lecture slides on Probabilistic weather forecasting

D. (under construction)