UBC ATSC 413 - Forest-fire Weather & Climate

Meteorological Concepts: Theory & Applications

(Synoptics & Mesoscale)

Under revision.


mc01: Weather Map Analysis

  1. Intro
  2. Upper-air maps
    • (a) and Lessons from NOAA -https://www.noaa.gov/jetstream/upper-air-charts
    • (b) including upper-air feature identification -https://www.noaa.gov/jetstream/upper-air-charts/basic-wave-patterns
  3. Surface maps (Also see mc05.1, below.)
    • and Lessons from NOAA -https://www.noaa.gov/jetstream/synoptic
  4. More feature identification (fronts, troughs, etc.)
    • (a) weather.gov Training Page -https://www.weather.gov/source/zhu/ZHU_Training_Page/Miscellaneous/chart_comparison/chart_comparison.htm
    • (b) also (Milrad, 2018: Ch 5)
  5. How to Decode METARs.
  6. Video how to utilize the 50 kPa (500 mb) chart: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h_Uue5UBCOU&t=22s
    and a video how to analyze 100 - 50 kPa Thickness lines: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OZqvElWugxs

mc02: How To Read Weather Maps and Cross Sections on this Website 

  1. Annotated weather-map examples, with explanations.
  2. Station plot models:

mc03: Satellite Image Access & Interpretation

  1. RAMMB-CIRA
  2. Worldview:
  3. Multispectral composite imagery using RGB displays, and other automated satellite products .
  4. xxx

mc04: Extra-tropical (mid-latitude) Cyclones

  1. Intro: Cyclone Evolution & Movement
  2. Cyclolysis - Boundary Layer Drag Kills Cyclones (with a review of geostrophic wind)
  3. Cyclogenesis - Part 1: Divergence Aloft
  4. Cyclogenesis - Part 2: East of Rossby-wave Troughs (with a review of Rossby waves)
  5. Cyclogenesis - Part 3: Vertical Tilting and Stacking (with a review of the hypsometric eq. and virtual T)
  6. Cyclogenesis - Part 4: Jet Streaks
  7. Cyclogenesis - Part 5: Mountain Lee Effects (with a review of vorticity)
  8. Quasi-geostrophic (QG) Theory for Cyclones (vorticity tendency [& Laplacian tips], height tendency, and omega eqs.)
  9. Cyclogenesis - Part 6: Thermodynamic Effects & Cyclone Bombs (with diabatic QG height-tendency discussion)
  10. Ascent in Cyclones: Trenberth omega eq. (read Stull p458); and Q-vectors (read Stull sections 13.5.3, 13.7.3 and Lackmann p48-50)
  11. Cyclogenesis - Part 7: Big-Picture Summary Graphics, including conveyor belts

mc05: Fronts

  1. Intro: analyzing fronts on wx maps
  2. Surface fronts: horizontal and vertical structure. (Read Stull p389, and section 12.3. Read Lackmann sections 6.1 and 6.4.0 - 6.4.2.)
  3. Why fronts exist: Creation of barclinic zones (read Stull section 13.7.4) and geostrophic adjustment (Read Stull section 12.4)
  4. Mid-tropospheric (occluded) fronts and TROWALs. (Read Stull section 12.6. Read Lackman section 6.4.3.)
  5. Upper-tropospheric fronts. (Read Stull section 12.8. Read Lackman section 6.5.)
  6. Frontogenesis. Kinematic & thermodynamic (Read Stull 12.5.1-12.5.2, and Lackmann 6.2);
    and dynamic (Read Stull 12.5.3 and Lackmann 6.3)
  7. Misc.: dry lines, bent-back fronts, sting jets, arctic fronts, instant occlusions, coastal fronts. (Read Stull 12.7, 12.9, and Lackman 6.4.1.3, 6.4.3.3 & 6.4.4)
  8. [ECCC doesn't need this:
    Q-vector understanding of fronts (Review Stull section 13.5.3, then read Stull section 13.7.5). Interpretation:
    • Frontogenesis occurs where Q-vectors cross isentropes (lines of constant potential temperature) from cold toward warm;
    • Updrafts occur where Q-vectors converge, such as at diffluence regions near the leading edge of cold fronts. ]

mc06: Humidity, Temperature, Clouds, Boundary Layers & Smoke Dispersion

  1. Humidity Fundamentals
  2. Temperature, potential temperature, virtual temperature
  3. Convective cumuliform vs. upslope stratiform clouds
  4. Atmospheric Boundary Layer (ABL) and smoke-dispersion fundamentals
  5. Dispersion - Gaussian Plume fundamentals
  6. HYSPLIT Dispersion model

mc07: Soundings, Thunderstorms & PyroCb

  1. Mandatory and significant levels
  2. Plotting on tephigrams (EC large; and PrMet small ) and skew-T diagrams
  3. Feature identification (mixed layer top, tropopause, etc.)
  4. Static and dynamic stability and turbulence
  5. Thunderstorm Convection (CAPE, CIN, indices)
  6. Emagram illustrating equivalent theta and web-bulb theta
  7. Pyrocumulonimbus (PyroCb) = Cumulonimbus Flammagenitus
  8. Fire whirls ( Australia , Australia , California , ) and fire tornadoes (at Gun Lake, BC , at Jasper, AB , California1 , California2 , )

mc08: How to Give Weather Briefings

  1. Cookbook tips for short (10 min) weather briefings for Vancouver.
  2. Demo video of a 10-min weather briefing. (Under Construction.)
    .
  3. Demo video of a 50-min Fire Weather Capstone Presentation, by Jalena Bennett, UBC, for the Sparks Lake fire.
  4. Example of Notes and Links used by Jalena for her Sparks Lake fire briefing.
    .
  5. Fire Weather Discussions by Experts: A good example by Neal McLoughlin, BC Wildfire Service. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DHgrCZDgAE8

mc09: Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP)

  1. NWP Fundamentals.
  2. Description of the NWP process. Read Stull, 2018: Practical Meteorology, Chapter 20.
  3. COMET modules on government and research NWP models worldwide
  4. Ensemble NWP , Probabilistic Forecasts , Interpretation & Pitfalls ,
  5. Data Assimilation
  6. Table of NWP models (as of Dec 2023; draft Excel file) .

mc10: Coupled NWP - Fire Behavior Models

  1. WRF-SFIRE
  2. xx
  3. xx

mc11: Weather Forecasting

  1. Modern weather forecasting using tools on the internet-v4. Presented by Lynn Engel (28 Nov 2024).
  2. COMET Module: Tactical Fire Weather Forecasting .
  3. ECCC presentation by Mariette Kulin (Dec 2023). Meteorology Careers at the Meteorological Service of Canada: Who we are, what we do and how you can apply. (a pdf copy of powerpoint slides) 
  4. BC Wildfire Service presentation by Chief Forecaster Matt MacDonald (19 Nov 2024). An .mp4 video, 1 hr long. Covers: overview, predictive services unit, products issued, & review of the 2024 fire season, including job openings.
  5. xx
  6. Sample Fire Weather Forecasts (courtesy of Matt MacDonald, BCWS):
  7. xx

mc12:  Access to Archived Weather Maps & Data

  1. Weather Maps:
    1. Excellent archived weather maps from U. Washington, including surface analyses, upper-air maps, radar (US only): https://a.atmos.washington.edu/weather/archive/varchive.shtml  
    2.  Large collection of archives of every type of weather data, from Iowa State Univ.: https://cumulus.geol.iastate.edu/data_arch.html  
    3. Daily Weather Maps from the USA, including the surface analysis and 50 kPa map (but only one per day, valid 7 am EST).  Method: don't click on this link.  Instead, copy the link URL, into your browser, then edit the date (YYYYMMDD), before you hit RETURN to download the pdf.  This is the link for the morning before (7 Jan 2025) the Palisades fire:  https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/pdf/DWM_20250107.pdf 
    4. Archived upper air maps from sounding data (contoured). You can select western Canada, or other Canadian options. https://vortex.plymouth.edu/myowxp/upa/ctrmap-a.html 
    5. xx
  2. Access to other archived data here;
      1. Misc: from Plymouth Univ:     https://vortex.plymouth.edu/myowxp/ 
      2. Misc: from Colorado State Univ: https://schumacher.atmos.colostate.edu/resources/archivewx.php  
      3. Surface data, upper air maps, radar:  https://www.weather.gov/ffc/archives  
      4. Canadian weather statistics (including air quality) at weather stations: https://www.weatherstats.ca/  
      5. xx 
  3. Meteograms: 
    1. Meteograms for any year, any city, from Meteoblue:  https://www.meteoblue.com/en/weather/historyclimate/weatherarchive/vancouver_canada_6173331   
    2. Meteograms for any year, any city, from Weather Underground: https://www.wunderground.com/history   
    3. xx 
  4. Soundings:
  5. Archived sounding data from Univ. of Wyoming:  https://weather.uwyo.edu/upperair/sounding.shtml   
  6. xx 
  7. Radar & Satellite:
    1. Worldwide satellite image & fire hotspots - NASA Worldview: https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov/ 
    2. USA radar data archives - Nat'l Center for Environ. Info (NCEI): https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/maps/radar/ 
    3. Canadian radar and climate data archives - ECCC: https://climate.weather.gc.ca/radar/index_e.html 
    4. USA radar & satellite data archives back to 1991 - weather.us:  https://weather.us/radar-us/usa/20251021-202600z.html 
    5. USA radar & satellite data archives back to 1991 - meteologix: https://meteologix.com/ca/radar-us#google_vignette 
    6. xx 
  8. Worldwide lightning data archives - blitzortung:  https://www.blitzortung.org/en/historical_maps.php 
  9.  xx
  10. xx

mc13: Regional & Mountain Winds

  1. Downslope Windstorms: Foehn, Chinook, Santa-Ana, Diablo (Stull, 2018: Practical Meteorology, Chapter 17, section 17.10)
  2. Mountain Waves (Stull, 2018: Practical Meteorology, Chapter 17, section 17.7)
  3. Stull's presentation on regional winds
  4. xx 

mc14: Climate

  1. Climate Change vs. Wildfires . (see the Climate tab at the top of this web page)
  2. xx
  3. xx

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